Archive for October, 2009

U.S. Army paratroopers train in small-unit tactics at night on Camp Ramadi, Iraq, Oct. 26, 2009. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Michael J. MacLeod

From The L.A. Times:

After years of relative calm, many voters are keen to put divisions behind them. Political leaders oblige with several Sunni-Shiite blocs. But in north Iraq, Kurd-Arab tensions will test such efforts.

Reporting from Baghdad – On the podium of a sweltering hotel ballroom recently, Sunni tribal leader Ahmed abu Risha stood alongside Interior Minister Jawad Bolani, a Shiite. Next to Bolani was a prominent Sunni religious leader, who stood beside a well-known Shiite human rights campaigner.

So it went, as Sunni and Shiite Muslims lined up together to announce the birth of a new political movement, the Iraqi Unity Alliance, which will run in elections planned for January on a platform of, yes, unity.

Read more ….

My Comment: After many years of war, people are looking for peace. This is probably the first step of many in Iraq’s political evolution to something more stable.

A technician pictured at the control room of the
Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facilities in 2007. Photo AFP

If the Obama Administration had hoped to get the bulk of Iran’s current stockpile of enriched uranium out of the country under a new agreement for reprocessing abroad, those hopes are fading fast. The counter-proposal offered by Iran on Thursday contained such substantive revisions that Western officials are interpreting it as a rejection — at least of the aspect of the deal most important to the Western powers. More worrisome, perhaps, for the future of President Obama’s engagement strategy may be the fact that although the deal contained some important concessions to Tehran, the possibility that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might embrace it sparked a storm of criticism from across the Iranian political spectrum.

Read more …

Iranian Lawmakers Reject Nuclear Deal — Voice of America
Iran lawmakers reject UN-drafted uranium plan — AP
Iran Tells U.N. It Wants Nuclear Fuel First – Envoys — New York Times
Iran seeks big changes to nuclear deal — Financial Times
Iran insists on changes to nuclear deal — L.A. Times
West still untrustworthy over Iran talks: Ahmadinejad — AFP
Iran nuclear deal: why the haggling might be different this time — Christian science Monitor
Iran Backtracks on Nuclear Deal, What Next? — The Atlantic
Iran’s Brazen Gambit in the Nuclear Chess Game — Heritage Foundation

Saddam Hussein

From AFP:

AMMAN — Deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein planned to escape from his US-run prison in 2006 with the help of loyalists, including former bodyguards, according to a book written by one of his lawyers.

“Saddam’s plan to escape prison was supposed to take place in the summer of 2006, with the backing of the Iraqi resistance and a special force of bodyguards,” Khalil al-Dulaimi wrote in “Saddam Hussein Out of US Prison: What Happened.”

Read more ….

My Comment: Saddam Hussein and his supporters were certainly delusional …. I guess that is why he and many of his followers are dead right now.

Salva Kiir, First Vice President of the Government of National Unity of Sudan and President of the Government of Southern Sudan (AFP)

JUBA, Sudan (Reuters) – South Sudan’s president on Saturday urged southerners to vote for independence in a referendum if they wanted to be free, the closest he has come to calling publicly for the separation of the oil-producing region.

The south secured a vote on whether to break away from Sudan as part of a peace deal that ended more than two decades of war with the north. But until now, southern President Salva Kiir has stuck to the official line of building support for unity.

Read more ….

Sudanese unity a ’second class’ option: Kiir — AFP
Pushing the deadline — Al-Ahram Weekly
Kiir says chances of united Sudan are slim — Sudan Tribune
Road to referendum — Sudan Tribune

Displaced Yemenis from Saada province live in a camp near Mazraq. Photo AFP

SANAA — The head of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) expressed support on Saturday for a five-point plan by the Yemeni government to end a protracted conflict with Shiite rebels.

“The OIC backs the unity and the security of Yemen,” Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, secretary general of the pan-Muslim organisation, told a news conference in Sanaa following talks with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Read more ….

Rebels Seize Border Crossing as Battles Rage in North — Yemen Post
Yemen civilians die in shellfire — BBC
Yemeni civilians killed in clashes — UPI
Displaced Yemenis killed in camp during fighting: UNHCR — AFP
UN agency shocked as displaced Yemenis come under attack — UN News Centre
Civilians killed in north Yemen fighting – UNHCR — Reuters
Yemen court sentences eight Shiite rebels to death — AFP
Yemeni president accused of ‘genocide’ — Press TV

Thai PM Backs Autonomy For Troubled South — AFP

BANGKOK — Thailand’s prime minister backed Tuesday a suggestion by his Malaysian counterpart to grant autonomy to the insurgency-hit Thai south, as five more people were killed in the Muslim-majority region.

Abhisit Vejjajiva said he would discuss the plan for the restive southern provinces on the Malaysian border when Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak visits Thailand in December.

Razak said in a newspaper interview published on Monday that Thailand should offer “some form” of autonomy to the region, where more than 3,900 people have been killed since separatist violence erupted in January 2004.

Read more ….

More discussion on south with Malaysian leader: Abhisit — The Nation
Two Buddhists killed in Thailand’s troubled south — Malaysian Insider
Suspected insurgents kill 2 in restive Thai south — AP
Policeman, suspected separatist shot in Thai south — Reuters
Five killed in restive Thai south: police — AFP
Autonomy not for Thai south — Malaysian Insider

It’s a fairly simple geopolitical rule: small, poor countries can’t afford to be global pariahs. The U.S. finally got Honduras to absorb that fact this week, and the result late Thursday night was a long awaited accord between coup-ousted President Manuel Zelaya and de facto President Roberto Micheletti.

The pact may well restore Zelaya to office before the country’s Nov. 29 presidential elections. It may also salvage the Obama Administration’s standing in the hemisphere. That reputation had faltered in recent months as Obama’s commitment to thwarting Honduras’ June 28 military putsch came under increasing suspicion in Latin America.

Read more ….

Honduran Congress to review crisis accord Tuesday — AP
Zelaya upbeat on Honduras deal — Al Jazeera
Honduras’ exiled president and his opponents reach accord — Dallas News/AP
Honduras accepts deal to allow return of ousted president — Financial Times
Ousted Honduran leader: Pact will restore me — Miami Herald
Honduras 1, Hillary 0 – Wall Street Journal opinion
Finally, America breaks this deadlock — The Independent, opinion

Photo: Al-Qaeda sleeper agent Ali al-Marri. Photo AFP

From New York Times:

WASHINGTON — After disrupting two recent terrorism plots, American intelligence officials are increasingly concerned that extremist groups in Pakistan linked to Al Qaeda are planning smaller operations in the United States that are harder to detect but more likely to succeed than the spectacular attacks they once emphasized, senior counterterrorism officials say.

The two cases — one involving two Chicago men accused this week of planning an attack on a Danish newspaper that published cartoons of the prophet Mohammad, the other a 24-year-old Denver shuttle bus driver indicted in a plot to use improvised explosives — are among the most serious in years, the officials said.

Read more ….

My Comment: All that you would need is a small cell of a few terrorists (3-5 men), experts in explosives, a small but not significant amount of cash (a few hundred thousand dollars), and the willingness to explode a car bomb in an American city every few days.

Such a terrorism strike will paralyze America’s major cities, and produce a media circus that will preempt all other news and government priorities …. in short …. it will paralyze the country.

Thank God our police forces and intelligence agencies have been successful in stopping the more determined members of these groups …. but the fear is real …. and the realization that it will only be a matter of time before such a terror action does occur on U.S. soil can only give us cold comfort that for the moment we are only playing for time.

From McClatchy News:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — After three days of encounters with America-bashing Pakistanis — who rejected her contention that the U.S. and Pakistan face a common enemy — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Friday that “we’re not getting through.”

Prominent women and tribesmen from the North West Frontier Province delivered the same hostile message that she’d heard the two preceding days from students and journalists: Pakistanis aren’t ready to endorse American friendship despite an eight-year-old anti-terrorism alliance between the countries and a multi-billion-dollar new U.S. aid package.

Read more ….

My Comment: If the above comments come from what is probably a cross section of Pakistani society, it will then sum up perfectly why Pakistan is now in a middle of a civil war. The denial of the evil that exists within their own society, coupled with a sense that they are the victims, is only helping to propagate a conflict that now shows no signs of abating.

Even if the Americans were not in the region, war and Islamic extremism will still exist in the countryside, the madrases that manufacture and support hate and intolerance will still be there, and the systemic corruption and culture of indifference from the central government with a compliant media will still be present.

In short …. the war on terror is their war, whether they want to deny it or not.

From The Australian:

THE UN torture investigator has warned that Zimbabwe’s fragile coalition government could collapse, saying his expulsion from the nation showed that President Robert Mugabe and his party continued to hold “the real power”.

Manfred Nowak, who was detained on Thursday when he arrived in Harare, blamed Mugabe for blocking his entry and said there was evidence that torture was once again being used to stifle dissent.

He said he would recommend that the UN Human Rights Council should take action against Zimbabwe.

Read more ….

SADC Summit to Discuss Zimbabwe Crisis — Voice of America
Zimbabwe: Mugabe takes sharp dig at Tsvangirai — AP
Zimbabwe PM ‘dishonest’: Mugabe — AFP
Mugabe criticises MDC boycott — Al Jazeera
SADC troika to hold heads of state summit on Zimbabwe — China View
Southern African Regional Grouping Steps Up Intervention in Zimbabwe Crisis — Voice of America

FILE PHOTO 40th Anniversary Of Cuban Missile Crisis
WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 1962: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY) (FILE PHOTO) A spy photo of a medium range ballistic missile base in San Cristobal, Cuba, with labels detailing various parts of the base, is shown October 1962. Former Russian and U.S. officials attending a conference commemorating the 40th anniversary of the missile crisis October 2002 in Cuba said that the world was closer to a nuclear conflict during the 1962 standoff between Cuba and the U.S., than governments were aware of. Photo: Getty Images. Oct 14, 2002

From Wall Street Journal:

The next hemispheric crisis could involve Venezuela and Iran.

In the summer of 1962, the leader of the great Soviet empire, Nikita Khrushchev, faced a serious problem. His huge intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) didn’t work. Their launchers were unreliable, their aim was off and the fuel used to rocket them skyward was so volatile that they had to be stored empty. In case of an attack, they would first have to be tanked up before being fired. The Soviet premier understood that since his ICBMs were a crucial part of his nuclear balance with the U.S., this put him at a major disadvantage.

Read more ….

My Comment: I never knew that the NIE had made an assessment that there were no Russian missiles in Cuba in 1962. Talk about being wrong.

This commentary is a sober assessment of the past, and …. a hint that we may be repeating it again in our near future.

BERLIN (Reuters) – George Bush, Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl paid their respects to the ordinary people who were behind the peaceful revolution of 1989 that brought down the Berlin Wall at an emotional ceremony in Berlin on Saturday.

The three statesmen from the United States, Soviet Union and West Germany — whose steady-handed leadership paved the way for the Wall’s opening on November 9, 1989 — recalled the heady events that led to the end of the Cold War at a ceremony attended by 1,800 people.

Read more ….

Kohl, Bush, Gorbachev remember Cold War in Berlin — AFP
Leaders recall Berlin Wall’s fall — BBC
Berlin Wall Commemoration Ceremony Unites Bush, Kohl, Gorbachev — Bloomberg
Statesmen meet in Berlin for reunification event — AP
George Bush, Mikhail Gorbachev and Helmut Kohl in Germany to mark fall of Berlin Wall — The Telegraph
Gorbachev, Bush and Kohl revisit Berlin, remember the fall of the Wall — Deutsche Welle
How Poland and Hungary Led the Way in 1989 — Spiegel Online
Berlin Wall road trip: Map – BBC

My Comment: Special mention should also be made to former British PM Margaret Thatcher, Pope John Paul II, and …. of course …. President Reagan.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (L) stands with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during their meeting in Abu Dhabi October 31, 2009, in this picture released by the Palestinian Press Office (PPO). REUTERS/Thaer Ganaim/PPO/Handout

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton failed on Saturday to persuade Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to resume talks with Israel, a spokesman for Abbas said, citing Jewish settlements as a stumbling block.

Clinton, ramping up efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama to revive negotiations suspended since December, flew to Israel after seeing Abbas in Abu Dhabi. After meetings in Jerusalem with officials, she was due to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later in the evening.

“There was no breakthrough in the talks,” Abbas’s spokesman Nabil Abu Rdainah told Reuters by telephone from Abu Dhabi.

Read more ….

Clinton makes personal bid to resume Mideast talks — AP
Palestinians Rebuff Clinton Peace Overture — Wall Street Journal/AP
Clinton meets with Netanyahu in Jerusalem — Haaretz
Huge Gaps Ahead as Clinton Pushes for Resumption of Israeli-Palestinian Talks — Voice of America
“Nothing new” says Abbas after meeting Clinton — Euronews
Abbas refuses to resume peace talks — Al Jazeera

My Comment: From the Palestinian point of view, these talks were a complete waste of time.

U.S. Marines conduct a security patrol in the Nawa District in the Helmand province, Afghanistan, Oct. 20, 2009. The Marines are assigned to Bravo Company, 1st Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment. U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Artur Shvartsberg

Three-month total in Afghanistan surpasses 1,000

More than 1,000 American troops have been wounded in battle over the past three months in Afghanistan, accounting for one-fourth of those injured in combat since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

The dramatic increase in amputees and other seriously injured service members comes as October marks the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Read more ….

My Comment: Everyone is predicting this total to be many magnitudes higher next year. While this war has been ongoing for the past 8 years, the heavy fighting has not even started yet. My prediction, after the opium crop is harvested and processed next year, expect the heavy fighting and casualties to start in May and progress and throughout the summer months.